Gold could be the next asset to break out.
Michael Dudas, a Wall Street analyst who has followed precious metals and miners for decades, predicts gold is on the cusp of recovering its losses.
“I think this is a good time to get back into the mill,” the Vertical Research analyst said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” “I think we can see a nice move in gold here over the next three months. I think by year’s end we could be above $ 1,300” an ounce.
Dudas is making the case that gold prices will reach $ 1,350 in six months. If that forecast is right, that would translate into a 10 percent gain from current levels.
“We can find the bottom here around $ 1,205-$ 1,210. I think the $ 1,240- $ 1,245 level is not unreasonable,” added Dudas. “I think in the near term, we do have a nice little bounce and reversal here.”
Gold has been trading around four month lows. But it did eke out a slight gain of 0.12 percent to settle at $ 1,214 an ounce on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it was up $ 2.
Dudas also makes a fundamental case that gold prices will strengthen. He believes inflation expectations will pick up and exceed nominal interest rates.
“I think that’s a big support level for gold as a commodity,” he said. “The level of accommodation, even if we see another 25 basis points, is still going to be quite real in the marketplace.”
He also says seasonal factors bode well for gold, and he sees some supply and demand factors as bullish signs longer term.
“Mine supply out of global miners is heading downward. We’re going to see a 5 to 15 percent decline in gold supply over the next years because of the bear market and lack of capital spending,” Dudas said. “I think it’s going to be much more difficult to access gold in the future as we have less coming to the marketplace and more of that gold going into the eastern markets.”