The rout in global commodities prices has claimed a number of formerly high-flying developing economies — and their asset markets — as victims. Despite the widespread carnage, there are still some regions that may be relatively attractive to investors.
To be certain, emerging market investments aren’t for the faint of heart. The prospect of tighter monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve, coupled with China’s economic slump, have prompted investors to pull cash out of developing economies at breakneck speed. By some estimates, net emerging market outflows totaled more than $ 940 million in the 13 months to the end of July, while EM-linked exchange-traded funds lost at least $ 19 billion thus far this year.
The end of the “commodities supercycle” — and the world of lower energy prices it’s helped to create — has produced a gallery of troubled economies on which investors have soured. Turkey, where trade links to major oil economies like Russia, Iraq and Iran have been a drag on its economy, has seen its lira plunge to record lows recently.
Still, the turmoil also has created some opportunities, which should be evaluated on their merits, according to Alex Wolf, emerging markets economist at Standard Life Investments, which holds roughly $ 393 billion under management.
“Some countries are clear beneficiaries, whether through increased wealth effects and a real consumption boost, or through reducing subsidies and reallocating fiscal spending to more efficient uses,” he said in an interview.
“However, it’s most important to take a country-by-country look, Wolf added.